Last 15 days Submissions

The last fifteen days saw 40 observers submit 147 cards for KZN. 14 of these cards were for new pentads.
This equates to 9.8 cards per day and 3.7 cards per observer.
As matter of interest over the last few periods for which I have statistics [ending 5/12/09; 20/11/09; 5/11/09 & 19/10/09], we have been averaging 9.8; 9.9; 9.5 & 11.3 cards/day respectively, with 3.7; 3.9, 3.8 & 3.4 cards/observer. As can be seen we seem to have a fairly regular submission rate, even with a constant change in observers.
Looking at the new pentads covered per day, the values change quite considerably over the same period: 0.93; 1.33; 1.18 & 0.53. We seem to have hit a peak in cards for new areas from 5/11/09 to 20/11/09, where we had 1.33 cards/day for new pentads. As can be expected this is likely to tail off, as we now have 61.5% of KZN covered.

Priority QDGC's in KZN (again)

Here are two maps of showing the priority QDGC's in KZN. The first map shows only the QDGC's, while the second has the pentad coverage as at 07h00 this morning.
We now have only FOUR core QDGC's with no coverage:

2731DC NONGOMA
2731DD NGXONGWANE
2830BD FORT LOUIS
2830DA COLLESSIE

There are also four boundary QDGC's with no coverage:

2731AB - mostly in Swaziland
2832BC - which 400m of beach and some dune forest north of Mission Rocks at St Lucia
3028BB - mostly Eastern Cape with some Lesotho
3029DD - Eastern Cape, but has three pentads touching KZN.

Who Has Been Atlassing in KZN

In the period 19 October to 5 of November 2009, we have had 162 cards submitted for KZN, 20 of which were for new pentads. There were 43 observers who submitted cards.

This works out to 9.5 cards per day over 17 days, at 3.8 cards per observer. Of course some people managed more cards, Tim wood managed a staggering 26 cards, while Rina Pretorius managed a to cover whopping 8 new pentads.

In the last reporting period of 15 days, 4/10 to 19/10, we had 49 observers submitting 169 cards, only 8 of which were for new pentads. [11.3 cards/days at 3.4 cards/observer].

Well done to all who are participating, every contribution is valuable.

Prioity QDGC's in KZN

These are the QDGC's with absolutely no pentads covered as at 8 October 2009.

The biggest gap still remains at Pomeroy, Collessie & Fort Louis (2830CB, DA & BD respectively).

The two empty QDGC's west of Mkuze are 2731DC & DD, Nongoma and Ngxongwane.

East of St Lucia is the empty QDGC 2832BC. The problem with this one is that there is only 0.18 km² of land in this QDGC, in one pentad. This lies just North of Mission Rocks.





This is the same map as above, I have simply added in the pentad coverage layer as it stood at 8 October 2009.

For for some more maps regarding SABAP 2 and the comparison with SABAP1 look at http://colinsbirds.blogspot.com/

KZN Atlassing

This last stats period of 17 days, which included the long weekend saw 51 observers submit 152 cards for KZN, of which 17 were for new pentads. Put another way we averaged 8.9 cards a day and three cards per observer.

Who Has Been Atlassing in KZN

In the 12 days since I last ran the numbers, we have had 32 observers submit 92 cards, 8 of which were for new pentads. This averages out at 7.7 cards per day and 2.9 cards per observer.

If we look at a breakdown of how many observers submitted cards:

11 of us submitted 1 card,
8 - 2 cards,
4 - 3 cards,
4 - 4 cards,
2 - 5 cards,
1 - 6 cards,
1 - 10 cards & lastly Johan Gouws with 11 cards, 4 of which were for new pentads.

SABAP2 vs SABAP1

I thought that since we are now 26 months into the project it would be interesting to compare where we are now, against what SABAP1 showed.
The only stats that I do have are the numbers of cards submitted and the species totals, so I looked briefly at the latter. [I am not certainly not going to open the whole 1 vs 2 debate here. There are definitely pros & cons for each protocol, but 26 months into SABAP2, I do not think that we are are going to change much on it project now].

There are now 6 KZN QDGC's where the SABAP2 species counts are higher than those of SABAP1.

Five of these are courtesy of Duncan McKenzie's very hard work around Vryheid. I know SABAP is a team effort, but Duncan has virtually single-handedly achievded higher Atlas species totals, than what was achieved the first time round. The best of these is 2730DD VRYHEID with a total of 294 against a previous total of 169, or 125 better. The other 4 Northern KZN QDGCs average 24 better than last time.
Interestingly, the first [and only] Southern KZN SABAP2 QDGC to surpass the last effort is 2930DB INANDA, with a total of 19 better than last time. This happened during my last stats update period, ie in the 18 days from 17/08/09 to 4/09/09.

What should be noted about all of these QDGC's is that the SABAP1 cover in these areas was not that good. If we look at most of the rest of KZN, where the cover was often a lot better, the picture is not as rosy.

If one now adds 10 to the SABAP2 total, then there would be an additional 2 QDGC's where the totals are the same or higher than SABAP1. Adding 20 species renders the same result.

If 30 is added, then we are up to 11 [or another 5 to the original 6].
If 40 is added, then we are up to 17.
If 50 is added, then we are up to 28.
If 60 is added, then we are up to 39.
If 70 is added, then we are up to 54.
If 80 is added, then we are up to 68.
If 90 is added, then we are up to 81.
If 100 is added, then we are up to 94.

At which stage I gave up. I counted 169 QDGC's as falling in or on the KZN border.
In a nutshell, if we added between 90 to 100 species to the current totals, we would have only 50% of the QDGC's that are the same or better off for SABAP2..

I then looked at some of the bigger centres or hotspots:
Durban had 355 species recorded in SABAP1 while we have a total of 294, or 61 behind;
PMB had 349 against a current total of 287, or 62 behind;
Empangeni: 319 against 255 (-64);
Ndumu: 388 vs 208 (-155);
Mkuzi (2732CA): 405 vs 266 (-139);
(2732CB): 399 vs 316 (-83);
Spioenkop: 287 vs 216 (-71);
Weenen: 298 vs 212 (-86);
Hlabisa: 262 vs 169 (-93);
Hluhluwe: 379 vs 287 (-92);
Mfolozi: 340 vs 207 (-133) and
Port Shepstone: 331 vs 211 (-120).